AUSTRALIA’S BUSHFIRE CRISIS: WHAT WILL BE THE POLICY FALLOUT?

Could a Royal Commission pave the way for pragmatic policy solutions on climate change and disaster management, that take into account Australia’s unique environment and strategic economic interests as a major resources trader?

In the midst of Australia’s bushfire crisis, there are significant questions being asked about the national political and policy fall-out, particularly as they relate to any shift in climate policy.

In recent days, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has given some ground by proposing a Royal Commission into management and co-ordination of the summer bushfires. He has also flagged that the controversial “Kyoto credits” policy to meet emission targets is likely to be dumped.

However, what happens next depends on State agreement for a national inquiry to proceed, its Terms of Reference (narrow or wide) and the level of lingering community disquiet once fire conditions ease.  

The sheer magnitude of the bushfire disaster – 28 people dead, more than 2,000 homes destroyed, 11 million hectares burnt, a massive wildlife toll, and around $5bn in damage to the economy – is driving pressure for change.

Considering the national issues at stake – including emission targets, energy, resources and agriculture policy, global trade agreements, tourism, and the image of Australia abroad (which is getting a hammering in most of the prestigious and influential global media) – it would be a surprise if the Morrison Government walked away from an inquiry in the face of opposition from the States.

For instance, overnight the French President Macron has warned about potential EU Trade bans against countries which fail to honour the Paris agreement on climate change.

The question that the Government will be closely assessing is whether community sentiment (which has been historically electorally fickle about climate change) has moved significantly in the wake of the bushfire crisis. Early polls may not be the best indicator.

A CATALYST FOR REAL CHANGE?

Strong activist pressure is emerging for a wide-ranging Royal Commission that puts the whole deck of cards on the table – not only bushfire disaster management but possibly policies on energy, emissions, resources, water and land planning and hazard or fuel load reductions.

NSW and Victoria are already proceeding with their own inquiries and it’s almost certain there will be plethora of Senate and other hearings into these issues. Any inquiry aimed at increasing federal powers over the States and their responsibilities for disaster management may hinge on trade-offs that see both state and federal policy areas examined.

What may emerge are more proactive responsibilities for the defence forces in national emergencies and reconstruction; greater federal involvement in land management, planning and hazard reduction; and more federal funding for still largely volunteer fire services that were clearly stretched by the geographical spread of the fires.

The states are also forging ahead with more aggressive emission targets.

NSW has already directed its Chief Scientist to deliver a report on transition to low-carbon technology; and a Victorian Inquiry is looking at the adequacy of the Commonwealth response.

 If these issues can be resolved there is the possibility that a Royal Commission will be up and running by the 2^nd quarter of 2020.

WHY A ROYAL COMMISSION?

A Royal Commission would assist the PM to regain control of the agenda and create a framework for action that will have authority with facts and science replacing the emotion and ideological rhetoric coming from the extreme ends of the political spectrum in the current debate.

What the bushfires have made clear is that Australia needs policy solutions that take into account a range of issues unique to Australia – its historically dry continental conditions, its strategic economic interests as a global resources and agricultural exporter, and a tourism sector that is a major regional employer.

The fires have also raised questions about the viability of regional cities and communities that service these industries, and particularly their insurability.

There have also been concerns within the Coalition that Australia is being pressured to agree to global “one-cap fits all” climate change treaties that are politically unworkable here and could create long-term economic damage.

In effect, the PM may be hoping a Royal Commission can find a pathway to what has been a politically elusive middle ground on climate change, albeit with a major risk that it could open up fresh divisions in an already polarised electorate.

KEY ISSUES FOR A ROYAL COMMISSION

• Building Australia’s resilience to major bushfires.  Land, vegetation and hazard management, fuel loads, controlled burning and buffer zones to protect towns, farms and regional industries. The resilience of the electricity and communication networks will also come under scrutiny.
• Greater national disaster co-ordination. At what point are the defence forces activated and integrated into national disaster management and recovery (rather than waiting around to be requested for assistance by the States).
• Early detection and response to extreme climatic conditions. Did Australia miss or ignore early warning signs? How early and at what threshold can governments intervene to protect communities if they receive credible weather and scientific evidence pointing to potential life-threatening events.
• What national policy positions can be taken to ameliorate the harmful effects of climate change. Higher emission targets, a National Energy Guarantee, and demands for an accelerated transition out of coal would be considered.

TECHNOLOGY AND MARKETS LEADING CLIMATE ACTION

Clearing away a lot of the political commentary, the key point is that technology and market forces are taking a lot of climate policy out of the Australian Government’s hands.

While the Coalition fights the perception that it is a laggard on climate change, the reality is Australia has globally high per capita spending on renewable energy and is a world leader in rooftop solar uptake.

Financial markets are also backing renewables, while Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) guidelines on financial institutions are having a major impact on investments in fossil fuels.

A federal technology policy paper due later this year is expected to acknowledge the lead role innovation will play in climate change in Australia.

The question now is whether Australia can in effect establish a “climate change settlement” that allows it to shift from its current defensive posture to tap into the abundant sources of renewables that the nation holds.